為什麼很多歐洲官員改變了觀點，不再認為俄羅斯是北溪爆炸的幕後黑手？僅僅是沒找到俄羅斯動手的證據嗎？
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2月1日，我發了一條關於北溪的微博。認為如果真的北溪是俄羅斯幹的，應該西方各種媒體報導滿天飛了。不應該到現在為止還悄無聲息。
一周之後，英國泰晤士報發了一篇文章，內容是一位美國著名的調查記者Seymour Hersh撰文披露是美國炸毀了北溪管道。當然，泰晤士報做為知名的英國報紙，並沒有證實這個報導的真偽，只是引用而已。這個報導也是記者的一面之詞。
但作為英國頭號嚴肅報紙，也不會引用一篇完全胡說八道的文章吧。
這位記者Seymour Hersh是何許人也？
根據大不列顛百科全書線上版，這位赫什（Seymour Hersh），1937 年 4 月 8 日出生於美國伊利諾伊州芝加哥市），美國記者，已經快85歲了。據稱，他是一位對美國民主有堅定信仰的人，因為理想主義原因而揭發黑幕。他因為揭露美軍在越南的美萊大屠殺獲得了1970年的普利策獎。赫什於 1972 年加入《紐約時報》 ，對水門事件醜聞進行了開創性的報導，儘管該報導的大部分功勞歸功於卡爾·伯恩斯坦和赫什的長期競爭對手鮑勃·伍德沃德。赫什也是伊拉克阿布格萊布監獄虐待囚犯事件的主要揭露者。
赫什的職業生涯建立在贏得政府、軍方和情報界消息來源（通常不具名）的信任之上，他將自己的使命描述為讓公職人員「達到盡可能高的正直和誠實標準」。在他的職業生涯中，赫什獲得了無數榮譽。除了普利策獎外，他還獲得了五項喬治波爾克獎。
當然，對這位記者的批評也不少。根據維基百科，赫什使用匿名消息來源一直受到批評。美國國防部發言人布賴恩·惠特曼 (Bryan G. Whitman) 說：「這位記者因根據事實做出誇張的斷言而享有盛譽。基於來源稀少、無法覈實的匿名來源。」
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報導是否真實，我沒有任何方法證明。
但我確實一直懷疑是美國或者美國盟國幹的。
理由是一些基本的邏輯推理：首先，是能力，這個不用解釋，美國足夠強大，有能力做到這件事。
其次是動機，有幾點：
1. 美國一直堅決反對北溪，希望也試圖搞黃北溪。威脅施壓制裁都用過。
2. 俄羅斯向歐洲施壓的主要手段就是能源。用斷供去威脅，用恢復供氣去示好。北溪不是一開始就徹底斷掉的，而是斷斷續續。北溪徹底斷掉俄就失去了籌碼。
3. 其他的管線經過對俄羅斯敵意明顯的波蘭或烏克蘭。只有北溪直接到德國。而德國在挺烏上又是不夠堅定的。德國有可能被廉價天然氣誘惑，需要斷了這種可能。
4. 美國LNG填補俄氣空白，賺了很多錢。徹底斷掉北溪，美國未來能賺更多錢。是受益者。當然還有其他受益者，比如挪威。
當然，從陰謀論套娃的角度，北溪被炸事件，確實不能排除俄羅斯栽贓嫁禍美國，離間美歐的可能性。
不過，栽贓嫁禍給他人這種事不少見，但兇手栽贓嫁禍給調查案件的警察，這種事很少聽說。
爆炸在丹麥和瑞典邊上，這是北約防備最嚴密的地域之一。瑞典準備要加入北約，美國當年竊聽歐盟領導人，具體執行者就是丹麥國家情報局。北溪爆炸案的調查，美國方面的影響力肯定是最大的。
俄羅斯搞事，然後栽贓栽給調查的警察，有點不可思議了。
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從九月份北溪被炸，到現在，已經四個多月了，經過了各國的嚴密調查，這麼久還找不到實錘證據。只確認是認為炸的，但不知道是誰。理論上，要找到俄羅斯炸的證據，早就爆了。
去年12月21日，美國知名主流媒體《華盛頓郵報》發表了一篇文章，題目是《沒有確鑿證據表明俄羅斯是北溪襲擊的幕後黑手》
裡面有這樣的描述：
但現在，經過幾個月的調查，許多官員私下表示，俄羅斯可能畢竟不是北溪管道襲擊的罪魁禍首。
一名歐洲官員表示：「目前沒有證據表明俄羅斯是這次破壞活動的幕後黑手。」這與最近幾周接受採訪的9個國家的23名外交和情報官員的評估相呼應。
一些人甚至表示，他們認為俄羅斯沒有責任。其他仍然認為俄羅斯是主要嫌疑人的人表示，肯定地將襲擊歸咎於任何國家可能是不可能的。
但官員們說，即使是那些對調查細節有內部瞭解的人，也沒有最終將俄羅斯與襲擊聯繫起來，他們不願透露姓名，以分享調查進展的信息，其中一些是基於機密情報。
部分官員表示遺憾的是，如此多的世界領導人將矛頭指向莫斯科，而不考慮可能有能力和動機進行襲擊的其他國家以及極端組織。
一位歐洲官員表示：「在得出結論之前不發表評論的政府是正確的。」
2022年9月，剛發生爆炸時，一位歐洲高級環境官員在告訴《華盛頓郵報》。「歐洲一邊沒有人會考慮除俄羅斯破壞之外的可能。」但隨著調查的拖延，懷疑論者指出，俄羅斯從俄羅斯輸送西歐天然氣的管道遭到破壞，對俄羅斯沒有什麼好處。這些管道每年產生數十億美元的收入。北溪項目多年來一直引發爭議和辯論，因為它們將德國和其他歐洲國家與俄羅斯的能源聯繫在一起。
一名西歐官員表示：「俄羅斯（襲擊管道）的理由對我來說從來沒有意義。」
根據《華盛頓郵報》的描述，2022年9月，剛發生爆炸時，絕大多數歐洲官員都認為，這是俄羅斯幹的。但隨著調查的深入，越來越多的歐洲官員認為，沒有證據表明俄羅斯是這次破壞活動的幕後黑手。
這些歐洲官員調查出了什麼，讓他們改變了原先的觀點？僅僅是沒有找到俄羅斯炸管道的證據嗎？還是，他們發現了一些其他的不可言說的東西？
《華盛頓郵報》是美國頂級媒體，自然不會幹太出格的事情。但還是發了這麼一篇隱約意有所指的文章。
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Seymour Hersh的調查全文（中英對照機翻）我附在最後。
裡面大概的描述包括：
2022年6月，美國海軍潛水員在廣為宣傳的北約夏季演習BALTOPS 22的掩護下，放置了遠程觸發的炸藥。這個行動以一個在博恩霍爾姆島海岸舉行的水下佈雷和探測水雷的行動做為掩護。
這個事情得到了挪威軍隊的大力配合。挪威是歐洲主要的石油和天然氣供應國。算是北溪被炸的獲利一方。
北約的秘書長是延斯·斯托爾滕貝格，他曾擔任挪威總理八年，直到2014年在美國的支持下擔任北約高級職位。他在普京和俄羅斯的所有事情上都是強硬派，自越南戰爭以來一直與美國情報界合作。從那以後，他一直受到完全信任。
連接在管道上的C4炸藥將由飛機在短時間內投放的聲納浮標觸發，但這一過程涉及最先進的信號處理技術。
2022年9月26日，挪威海軍的一架P8偵察機進行了一次看似例行的飛行，並投下了聲納浮標。信號在水下傳播，最初是北溪2號，然後是北溪1號。幾個小時後，大功率C4炸藥被觸發，四條管道中的三條被停用。幾分鐘內，可以看到留在關閉的管道中的甲烷氣體池在水面上蔓延，世界得知發生了不可逆轉的事情。
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現代國家，基本都有比較完備的國內法律。在國內炸掉一段輸氣管道，那可是大事。兇手大概率被繩之以法。
但國際社會中國際法的完備性，遠遠不如各國國內。國際社會，是一個法律敗壞的地方。也許還不如哥倫比亞這樣毒梟盛行的國家。
在這樣一個社會中，誰會更肆無忌憚，誰的膽量更大?
在一個法律敗壞的地方，是一個有錢有勢，拳頭最大，還控制著輿論媒體的大佬更肆無忌憚，膽子更大？
還是一個無錢無勢，毫無輿論能力的普通人膽子更大？誰會更高調更肆無忌憚？
邏輯上，應該是有錢有勢的人會更高調更膽大更肆無忌憚吧。
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這篇文章提到了挪威政府通過的《補充防務合作協議》（SDCA）。該協議規定：美國法律體系將在某些「商定地區」對被控在基地外犯罪的美國士兵以及被控或涉嫌干擾基地工作的挪威公民擁有管轄權。
舊中國是半殖民地國家。半殖民地國家的標誌包括：本國國土上的外國駐軍；國中之國，不受中國法律管轄的租界；治外法權。外國人在中國犯法，由外國根據外國法律審理處罰，中國無權審理等等。
根據挪威媒體的報導，美國和挪威的協議，包括：
美國將無條件進入和使用四個「約定區域」。在挪威北部，這兩個地區是拉姆松德海軍基地和埃文斯空軍基地。
所謂「約定區域」，基本上就是美國、挪威等盟友共同使用的有限區域，用於軍事目的。在這些地區，美國可以進行訓練和演習，部署部隊並儲存設備、物資和其他裝備。
該協議還開放了根據特殊協議向美國提供對部分地區的獨家使用權和使用權。在這些地區及其附近，美國也將有權對挪威公民行使權力。
美國被賦予了起訴在公務外犯下刑事罪行的美軍的首要權利，並有權定義什麼是公務行為，什麼不是公務行為。有了這項協議，美國將能夠對所有刑事案件行使主要管轄權。「未來實際的主要規則將是美國當局將起訴他們自己軍隊犯下的罪行。」
根據挪威總檢察長的聲明：「每個部隊成員都有行使權力（和權力）的途徑，並且可以對任何接觸商定區域或在特殊情況下妨礙美國行動的人行使權力」；「因此，任何美國部隊成員都可以對挪威平民施加權力，以恢復秩序或保護部隊。」；「在對威脅感知採取不同方法或採取相稱措施的極端情況下，挪威當局沒有否決權。」
美國在挪威有駐軍。這個協議，規定了美軍在挪威有國中之國的租借。賦予美國的權力，也已經超越了一般治外法權。不僅僅在挪威的美軍可以享受公務和非公務範疇的治外法權，和美軍有關的部分挪威公民，美國也有一定的司法權力。
當然，我們不能稱人均GDP首屈一指的挪威為半殖民地國家。但這個世界上，也許，真正有完整獨立主權的國家，也沒有我們想象的那麼多。
北溪的爆炸，也許永遠是個謎。不管找到什麼樣的證據，我相信歐洲國家最多也只是內心裡嘟囔兩句，腹誹一下，然後就不了了之了。
畢竟，美國還是那個打贏了二戰和冷戰的美國。勝利者是不受審判的。
去機場路上寫了一篇。快起飛了，也來不及編輯查錯了。
附錄
Seymour Hersh的調查全文（中英對照機翻）
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline
The U.S. Navy’s Diving and Salvage Center can be found in a location as obscure as its name—down what was once a country lane in rural Panama City, a now-booming resort city in the southwestern panhandle of Florida, 70 miles south of the Alabama border. The center’s complex is as nondescript as its location—a drab concrete post-World War II structure that has the look of a vocational high school on the west side of Chicago. A coin-operated laundromat and a dance school are across what is now a four-lane road.
美國海軍的潛水打撈中心就像它的名字一樣默默無聞——位於巴拿馬城鄉村的一條鄉間小路上。巴拿馬城是佛羅里達州西南部狹長地帶的一座度假城市，現在正在蓬勃發展，距離阿拉巴馬州邊境以南70英里。該中心的建築群和它的位置一樣不起眼——這是一座二戰後的單調混凝土建築，看起來像芝加哥西側的一所職業高中。在現在的四車道公路對面，有一家投幣式自助洗衣店和一所舞蹈學校。
The center has been training highly skilled deep-water divers for decades who, once assigned to American military units worldwide, are capable of technical diving to do the good—using C4 explosives to clear harbors and beaches of debris and unexploded ordinance—as well as the bad, like blowing up foreign oil rigs, fouling intake valves for undersea power plants, destroying locks on crucial shipping canals. The Panama City center, which boasts the second largest indoor pool in America, was the perfect place to recruit the best, and most taciturn, graduates of the diving school who successfully did last summer what they had been authorized to do 260 feet under the surface of the Baltic Sea.
幾十年來，該中心一直在培訓高技能的深水潛水員。一旦被派往世界各地的美軍部隊，這些潛水員就有能力進行技術性的潛水，既能做好事——用C4炸藥清除港口和海灘上的殘骸和未爆彈藥——也能做壞事，比如炸毀外國石油鑽井平台，污染海底發電廠的進水閥門，摧毀關鍵的航運運河的船閘。巴拿馬城中心號稱擁有美國第二大室內游泳池，是招募潛水學校最優秀、最沉默寡言的畢業生的理想場所。去年夏天，他們成功地完成了他們被授權在波羅的海海面下260英尺的任務。
Last June, the Navy divers, operating under the cover of a widely publicized mid-summer NATO exercise known as BALTOPS 22 , planted the remotely triggered explosives that, three months later, destroyed three of the four Nord Stream pipelines, according to a source with direct knowledge of the operational planning.
據一位直接瞭解行動計劃的消息人士透露，去年6月，海軍潛水員在廣為宣傳的北約仲夏演習BALTOPS 22的掩護下，放置了遠程觸發的炸藥，三個月後摧毀了四條北溪管道中的三條。
Two of the pipelines, which were known collectively as Nord Stream 1, had been providing Germany and much of Western Europe with cheap Russian natural gas for more than a decade. A second pair of pipelines, called Nord Stream 2, had been built but were not yet operational. Now, with Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian border and the bloodiest war in Europe since 1945 looming, President Joseph Biden saw the pipelines as a vehicle for Vladimir Putin to weaponize natural gas for his political and territorial ambitions.
其中兩條管道被統稱為北溪1號，十多年來一直為德國和西歐大部分地區提供廉價的俄羅斯天然氣。第二對管道名為北溪2號，已經建成，但尚未投入使用。現在，隨著俄羅斯軍隊在烏克蘭邊境集結，歐洲自1945年以來最血腥的戰爭迫在眉睫，約瑟夫·拜登總統將這些管道視為弗拉基米爾·普京將天然氣武器化的工具，以實現他的政治和領土野心。
Asked for comment, Adrienne Watson, a White House spokesperson, said in an email, 「This is false and complete fiction.」 Tammy Thorp, a spokesperson for the Central Intelligence Agency, similarly wrote: 「This claim is completely and utterly false.」
在被要求置評時，白宮發言人埃德里安娜·沃森在一封電子郵件中說，「這是虛假的，完全是虛構的。」美國中央情報局發言人塔米·索普也同樣寫道：「這種說法完全是虛假的。」
Biden’s decision to sabotage the pipelines came after more than nine months of highly secret back and forth debate inside Washington’s national security community about how to best achieve that goal. For much of that time, the issue was not whether to do the mission, but how to get it done with no overt clue as to who was responsible.
拜登做出破壞輸油管道的決定之前，華盛頓的國家安全界就如何最好地實現這一目標進行了九個多月的高度秘密的反復辯論。在大部分時間里，問題不在於是否要完成這項任務，而是如何在沒有明確線索的情況下完成這項任務。
There was a vital bureaucratic reason for relying on the graduates of the center’s hardcore diving school in Panama City. The divers were Navy only, and not members of America’s Special Operations Command, whose covert operations must be reported to Congress and briefed in advance to the Senate and House leadership—the so-called Gang of Eight . The Biden Administration was doing everything possible to avoid leaks as the planning took place late in 2021 and into the first months of 2022.
依賴該中心在巴拿馬城的核心潛水學校的畢業生有一個至關重要的官僚原因。潛水員只是海軍，而不是美國特種作戰司令部的成員。特種作戰司令部的秘密行動必須向國會報告，並事先向參議院和眾議院領導層——即所謂的八人幫——通報。拜登政府正在盡一切可能避免洩密，因為計劃是在2021年底和2022年頭幾個月進行的。
President Biden and his foreign policy team—National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Tony Blinken, and Victoria Nuland, the Undersecretary of State for Policy—had been vocal and consistent in their hostility to the two pipelines, which ran side by side for 750 miles under the Baltic Sea from two different ports in northeastern Russia near the Estonian border, passing close to the Danish island of Bornholm before ending in northern Germany.
拜登總統和他的外交政策團隊——國家安全顧問傑克·沙利文、國務卿托尼·布林肯和負責政策的副國務卿維多利亞·紐蘭——一直直言不諱地反對這兩條管道，這兩條管道從俄羅斯東北部靠近愛沙尼亞邊境的兩個不同港口在波羅的海下並排運行750英里，靠近丹麥的博恩霍爾姆島，最後在德國北部結束。
The direct route, which bypassed any need to transit Ukraine, had been a boon for the German economy, which enjoyed an abundance of cheap Russian natural gas—enough to run its factories and heat its homes while enabling German distributors to sell excess gas, at a profit, throughout Western Europe. Action that could be traced to the administration would violate US promises to minimize direct conflict with Russia. Secrecy was essential.
這條直通路線繞過了從烏克蘭過境的任何需要，對德國經濟來說是一個福音。德國擁有豐富的廉價俄羅斯天然氣，足以運行其工廠和供暖家庭，同時使德國分銷商能夠在整個西歐出售多餘的天然氣並獲利。可以追溯到政府的行動將違反US承諾，即盡量減少與俄羅斯的直接衝突。保密至關重要。
From its earliest days, Nord Stream 1 was seen by Washington and its anti-Russian NATO partners as a threat to western dominance. The holding company behind it, Nord Stream AG , was incorporated in Switzerland in 2005 in partnership with Gazprom, a publicly traded Russian company producing enormous profits for shareholders which is dominated by oligarchs known to be in the thrall of Putin. Gazprom controlled 51 percent of the company, with four European energy firms—one in France, one in the Netherlands and two in Germany—sharing the remaining 49 percent of stock, and having the right to control downstream sales of the inexpensive natural gas to local distributors in Germany and Western Europe. Gazprom’s profits were shared with the Russian government, and state gas and oil revenues were estimated in some years to amount to as much as 45 percent of Russia’s annual budget.
從一開始，北溪一號就被華盛頓及其反俄的北約夥伴視為對西方主導地位的威脅。其背後的控股公司北溪股份有限公司於2005年與俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司合作在瑞士成立。俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司是一家公開上市的俄羅斯公司，為股東帶來巨額利潤，眾所周知，該公司由受普京控制的寡頭控制。俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司控制了該公司51%的股份，四家歐洲能源公司——一家在法國，一家在荷蘭，兩家在德國——分享剩餘49%的股份，並有權控制向德國和西歐當地分銷商銷售廉價天然氣的下游銷售。俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司的利潤與俄羅斯政府分享，國家天然氣和石油收入在某些年份估計高達45%的俄羅斯年度預算。
America’s political fears were real: Putin would now have an additional and much-needed major source of income, and Germany and the rest of Western Europe would become addicted to low-cost natural gas supplied by Russia—while diminishing European reliance on America. In fact, that’s exactly what happened. Many Germans saw Nord Stream 1 as part of the deliverance of former Chancellor Willy Brandt’s famed Ostpolitik theory , which would enable postwar Germany to rehabilitate itself and other European nations destroyed in World War II by, among other initiatives, utilizing cheap Russian gas to fuel a prosperous Western European market and trading economy.
美國的政治擔憂是真實存在的：普京現在將擁有一個額外且急需的主要收入來源，德國和西歐其他國家將沉迷於俄羅斯提供的低成本天然氣，同時減少歐洲對美國的依賴。事實上，這正是發生的事情。許多德國人認為北溪1號是前總理維利·勃蘭特著名的東方政治理論的一部分，該理論將使戰後德國能夠通過利用廉價的俄羅斯天然氣為繁榮的西歐市場和貿易經濟提供燃料等舉措來恢復自己和其他在二戰中被摧毀的歐洲國家。
Nord Stream 1 was dangerous enough, in the view of NATO and Washington, but Nord Stream 2, whose construction was completed in September of 2021 , would, if approved by German regulators, double the amount of cheap gas that would be available to Germany and Western Europe. The second pipeline also would provide enough gas for more than 50 percent of Germany’s annual consumption. Tensions were constantly escalating between Russia and NATO, backed by the aggressive foreign policy of the Biden Administration.
在北約和華盛頓看來，北溪1號已經足夠危險，但北溪2號的建設於2021年9月完成，如果得到德國監管機構的批准，將使德國和西歐可獲得的廉價天然氣量增加一倍。第二條管道還將為德國提供超過50%的年消費量。在拜登政府咄咄逼人的外交政策的支持下，俄羅斯和北約之間的緊張局勢不斷升級。
Opposition to Nord Stream 2 flared on the eve of the Biden inauguration in January 2021, when Senate Republicans, led by Ted Cruz of Texas, repeatedly raised the political threat of cheap Russian natural gas during the confirmation hearing of Blinken as Secretary of State. By then a unified Senate had successfully passed a law that, as Cruz told Blinken, 「halted [the pipeline] in its tracks.」 There would be enormous political and economic pressure from the German government, then headed by Angela Merkel, to get the second pipeline online.
在2021年1月拜登就職前夕，對北溪2號管道的反對情緒爆發，當時以德克薩斯州的特德·克魯茲為首的參議院共和黨人在布林肯擔任國務卿的確認聽證會上一再提出俄羅斯廉價天然氣的政治威脅。到那時，統一的參議院已經成功通過了一項法律，正如克魯茲告訴布林肯的那樣，該法律「停止了（管道）的運行。」當時以安格拉·默克爾為首的德國政府將面臨巨大的政治和經濟壓力，要求第二條管道上線。
Would Biden stand up to the Germans? Blinken said yes, but added that he had not discussed the specifics of the incoming President’s views. 「I know his strong conviction that this is a bad idea, the Nord Stream 2,」 he said. 「I know that he would have us use every persuasive tool that we have to convince our friends and partners, including Germany, not to move forward with it.」
拜登會站出來對抗德國人嗎？布林肯說會，但他補充說，他沒有討論即將上任的總統的具體觀點。「我知道他堅信北溪2號是個壞主意，」他說。「我知道他會讓我們使用一切有說服力的工具來說服我們的朋友和夥伴，包括德國，不要推進它。」
A few months later, as the construction of the second pipeline neared completion, Biden blinked. That May, in a stunning turnaround , the administration waived sanctions against Nord Stream AG, with a State Department official conceding that trying to stop the pipeline through sanctions and diplomacy had 「always been a long shot.」 Behind the scenes, administration officials reportedly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, by then facing a threat of Russian invasion, not to criticize the move.
幾個月後，當第二條管道的建設接近完成時，拜登眨了眨眼睛。那年5月，政府發生了驚人的轉變，放棄了對北溪公司的制裁，一名國務院官員承認，試圖通過制裁和外交手段阻止管道「一直是一個漫長的機會」。據報導，政府官員敦促烏克蘭總統沃洛季米爾·澤倫斯基不要批評此舉。
There were immediate consequences. Senate Republicans, led by Cruz, announced an immediate blockade of all of Biden’s foreign policy nominees and delayed passage of the annual defense bill for months, deep into the fall. Politico later depicted Biden’s turnabout on the second Russian pipeline as 「the one decision, arguably more than the chaotic military withdrawal from Afghanistan, that has imperiled Biden’s agenda.」
立即產生了後果。以克魯茲為首的參議院共和黨人宣佈立即封鎖拜登的所有外交政策提名人，並將年度國防法案的通過推遲了幾個月，直到秋天。Politico後來將拜登在俄羅斯第二條管道上的轉變描述為「危及拜登議程的一個決定，可以說不僅僅是混亂的從阿富汗撤軍。」
The administration was floundering, despite getting a reprieve on the crisis in mid-November, when Germany’s energy regulators suspended approval of the second Nord Stream pipeline. Natural gas prices surged 8% within days , amid growing fears in Germany and Europe that the pipeline suspension and the growing possibility of a war between Russia and Ukraine would lead to a very much unwanted cold winter. It was not clear to Washington just where Olaf Scholz, Germany’s newly appointed chancellor, stood. Months earlier, after the fall of Afghanistan, Scholtz had publicly endorsed French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a more autonomous European foreign policy in a speech in Prague—clearly suggesting less reliance on Washington and its mercurial actions.
11月中旬，德國能源監管機構暫停批准了第二條北溪管道，儘管危機得到了緩解，但政府仍在掙扎。天然氣價格在幾天內飆升了8%，德國和歐洲越來越擔心管道暫停以及俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間戰爭的可能性越來越大，將導致一個非常不必要的寒冬。華盛頓不清楚新任命的德國總理奧拉夫·肖爾茨的立場。幾個月前，阿富汗陷落後，肖爾茨在布拉格的一次演講中公開支持法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍呼籲歐洲外交政策更加自主——這顯然表明減少對華盛頓及其善變行動的依賴。
Throughout all of this, Russian troops had been steadily and ominously building up on the borders of Ukraine, and by the end of December more than 100,000 soldiers were in position to strike from Belarus and Crimea. Alarm was growing in Washington, including an assessment from Blinken that those troop numbers could be 「doubled in short order.」
在整個過程中，俄羅斯軍隊一直在烏克蘭邊境穩定而不祥地集結。到12月底，已有超過10萬名士兵準備從白俄羅斯和克里米亞發動攻擊。華盛頓的警覺與日俱增，包括布林肯的評估，即這些部隊的人數可能會「在短時間內增加一倍」。
The administration’s attention once again was focused on Nord Stream. As long as Europe remained dependent on the pipelines for cheap natural gas, Washington was afraid that countries like Germany would be reluctant to supply Ukraine with the money and weapons it needed to defeat Russia.
政府的注意力再次集中在北溪。只要歐洲仍然依賴廉價天然氣管道，華盛頓擔心德國等國家會不願意向烏克蘭提供擊敗俄羅斯所需的資金和武器。
It was at this unsettled moment that Biden authorized Jake Sullivan to bring together an interagency group to come up with a plan.
正是在這個動蕩的時刻，拜登授權傑克·沙利文召集一個機構間小組提出一個計劃。
All options were to be on the table. But only one would emerge.
所有的選擇都在桌面上。但只有一個會出現。
PLANNING
規劃
In December of 2021, two months before the first Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, Jake Sullivan convened a meeting of a newly formed task force—men and women from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the CIA, and the State and Treasury Departments—and asked for recommendations about how to respond to Putin’s impending invasion.
2021年12月，在第一批俄羅斯坦克開進烏克蘭的兩個月前，傑克·沙利文召集了一個新成立的特別工作組會議-來自參謀長聯席會議，CIA，國家和財政部的男女-並要求就如何應對普京即將到來的入侵提出建議。
It would be the first of a series of top-secret meetings, in a secure room on a top floor of the Old Executive Office Building, adjacent to the White House, that was also the home of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB). There was the usual back and forth chatter that eventually led to a crucial preliminary question: Would the recommendation forwarded by the group to the President be reversible—such as another layer of sanctions and currency restrictions—or irreversible—that is, kinetic actions, which could not be undone?
這將是一系列絕密會議中的第一次。會議將在白宮附近的舊行政辦公樓頂層的一個安全房間里舉行，那裡也是總統外國情報顧問委員會（PFIAB）的所在地。通常的來回交談最終導致了一個關鍵的初步問題：該小組向總統提出的建議是可逆的——比如另一層制裁和貨幣限制——還是不可逆轉的——即無法撤銷的動能行動？
What became clear to participants, according to the source with direct knowledge of the process, is that Sullivan intended for the group to come up with a plan for the destruction of the two Nord Stream pipelines—and that he was delivering on the desires of the President.
據直接瞭解這一過程的消息來源稱，參與者清楚的是，沙利文打算讓該組織提出一個摧毀兩條北溪管道的計劃他正在實現總統的願望。
Over the next several meetings, the participants debated options for an attack. The Navy proposed using a newly commissioned submarine to assault the pipeline directly. The Air Force discussed dropping bombs with delayed fuses that could be set off remotely. The CIA argued that whatever was done, it would have to be covert. Everyone involved understood the stakes. 「This is not kiddie stuff,」 the source said. If the attack were traceable to the United States, 「It’s an act of war.」
在接下來的幾次會議上，與會者討論了攻擊的選擇。海軍提議使用一艘新服役的潛艇直接攻擊管道。空軍討論了投擲帶有延遲引信的炸彈，這些引信可以遠程引爆。CIA認為，無論做什麼，都必須是秘密的。所有參與的人都明白其中的利害關係。「這不是小孩子的事情，」消息人士說。如果襲擊可以追溯到美國，「這是一種戰爭行為。」
At the time, the CIA was directed by William Burns, a mild-mannered former ambassador to Russia who had served as deputy secretary of state in the Obama Administration. Burns quickly authorized an Agency working group whose ad hoc members included—by chance—someone who was familiar with the capabilities of the Navy’s deep-sea divers in Panama City. Over the next few weeks, members of the CIA’s working group began to craft a plan for a covert operation that would use deep-sea divers to trigger an explosion along the pipeline.
當時，CIA是由威廉·伯恩斯指揮的。伯恩斯是一位溫文爾雅的前駐俄羅斯大使，曾在奧巴馬政府擔任副國務卿。伯恩斯很快批准了一個中情局工作組，其臨時成員中碰巧包括一位熟悉巴拿馬城海軍深海潛水員能力的人。在接下來的幾周里，中情局工作組的成員開始制定一項秘密行動計劃，利用深海潛水員在管道沿線引發爆炸。
Something like this had been done before. In 1971, the American intelligence community learned from still undisclosed sources that two important units of the Russian Navy were communicating via an undersea cable buried in the Sea of Okhotsk, on Russia’s Far East Coast. The cable linked a regional Navy command to the mainland headquarters at Vladivostok.
類似的事情以前也發生過。1971年，美國情報界獲悉，俄羅斯海軍的兩個重要單位正在通過一條埋在俄羅斯遠東海岸鄂霍次克海的海底電纜進行通信。這條電纜將一個地區海軍司令部與位於符拉迪沃斯托克的大陸總部連接起來。
A hand-picked team of Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency operatives was assembled somewhere in the Washington area, under deep cover, and worked out a plan, using Navy divers, modified submarines and a deep-submarine rescue vehicle, that succeeded, after much trial and error, in locating the Russian cable. The divers planted a sophisticated listening device on the cable that successfully intercepted the Russian traffic and recorded it on a taping system.
一個由中央情報局和國家安全局特工精心挑選的小組在華盛頓地區的某個地方秘密集結，利用海軍潛水員、改裝潛艇和深潛救援車制定了一個計劃，經過反復試驗，成功地找到了俄羅斯電纜。潛水員在電纜上安裝了一個複雜的監聽裝置，成功攔截了俄羅斯的交通，並將其記錄在錄音系統中。
The NSA learned that senior Russian navy officers, convinced of the security of their communication link, chatted away with their peers without encryption. The recording device and its tape had to be replaced monthly and the project rolled on merrily for a decade until it was compromised by a forty-four-year-old civilian NSA technician named Ronald Pelton who was fluent in Russian. Pelton was betrayed by a Russian defector in 1985 and sentenced to prison. He was paid just $5,000 by the Russians for his revelations about the operation, along with $35,000 for other Russian operational data he provided that was never made public.
美國國家安全局瞭解到，俄羅斯海軍高級軍官確信他們的通信鏈路的安全性，在沒有加密的情況下與同行聊天。錄音設備及其磁帶必須每月更換一次，該項目愉快地進行了十年，直到它被一名44歲的名叫羅納德·佩爾頓的平民國家安全局技術人員破壞，他精通俄語。佩爾頓於1985年被一名俄羅斯叛逃者背叛，並被判入獄。俄羅斯人只付給他5000美元，因為他揭露了這次行動，還有35,000美元，因為他提供了其他從未公開的俄羅斯行動數據。
That underwater success, codenamed Ivy Bells, was innovative and risky, and produced invaluable intelligence about the Russian Navy’s intentions and planning.
代號為常春藤鐘聲的水下成功是創新和冒險的，並產生了關於俄羅斯海軍意圖和計劃的寶貴情報。
Still, the interagency group was initially skeptical of the CIA’s enthusiasm for a covert deep-sea attack. There were too many unanswered questions. The waters of the Baltic Sea were heavily patrolled by the Russian navy, and there were no oil rigs that could be used as cover for a diving operation. Would the divers have to go to Estonia, right across the border from Russia’s natural gas loading docks, to train for the mission? 「It would be a goat fuck,」 the Agency was told.
不過，這個跨部門小組最初對中情局對秘密深海襲擊的熱情持懷疑態度。有太多未解之謎。波羅的海水域有俄羅斯海軍的大量巡邏，沒有石油鑽井平台可以作為潛水行動的掩護。潛水員是否必須前往與俄羅斯天然氣裝卸碼頭接壤的愛沙尼亞接受任務訓練？「這將是一場山羊fuck，」中情局被告知。
Throughout 「all of this scheming,」 the source said, 「some working guys in the CIA and the State Department were saying, ‘Don’t do this. It’s stupid and will be a political nightmare if it comes out.’」
消息人士說，在「所有這些陰謀」中，「CIA和國務院的一些工作人員說，『不要這樣做。這很愚蠢，如果它出來，將是一場政治噩夢。』」
Nevertheless, in early 2022, the CIA working group reported back to Sullivan’s interagency group: 「We have a way to blow up the pipelines.」
然而，在2022年初，CIA工作組向沙利文的跨部門小組報告說：「我們有辦法炸毀管道。
What came next was stunning. On February 7, less than three weeks before the seemingly inevitable Russian invasion of Ukraine, Biden met in his White House office with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who, after some wobbling, was now firmly on the American team. At the press briefing that followed, Biden defiantly said, 「 If Russia invades . . . there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it .」
接下來發生的事情令人震驚。2月7日，距離俄羅斯似乎不可避免地入侵烏克蘭不到三周，拜登在白宮辦公室會見了德國總理奧拉夫·舒爾茨。舒爾茨經過一番搖擺不定，現在堅定地加入了美國隊。在隨後的新聞發佈會上，拜登挑釁地說：「如果俄羅斯入侵 . . . 北溪2號將不再存在。我們將結束它。」
Twenty days earlier, Undersecretary Nuland had delivered essentially the same message at a State Department briefing, with little press coverage. 「I want to be very clear to you today,」 she said in response to a question. 「If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward .」
20天前，紐蘭副國務卿在國務院簡報會上傳達了基本相同的信息，但幾乎沒有媒體報導。「我今天想對你說得很清楚，」她在回答一個問題時說。「如果俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭，無論如何北溪2號將不會向前推進。」
Several of those involved in planning the pipeline mission were dismayed by what they viewed as indirect references to the attack.
一些參與規劃管道任務的人對他們認為間接提到襲擊感到沮喪。
「It was like putting an atomic bomb on the ground in Tokyo and telling the Japanese that we are going to detonate it,」 the source said. 「The plan was for the options to be executed post invasion and not advertised publicly. Biden simply didn’t get it or ignored it.」
「這就像在東京的地面上放了一顆原子彈，然後告訴日本人我們要引爆它，」消息人士說，「計劃是在入侵後執行選項，而不是公開宣傳。拜登根本沒有得到它或忽略它。」
Biden’s and Nuland’s indiscretion, if that is what it was, might have frustrated some of the planners. But it also created an opportunity. According to the source, some of the senior officials of the CIA determined that blowing up the pipeline 「no longer could be considered a covert option because the President just announced that we knew how to do it.」
拜登和紐蘭的輕率，如果是這樣的話，可能會讓一些規劃者感到沮喪。但這也創造了一個機會。據消息來源稱，CIA的一些高級官員確定，炸毀管道「不再被視為秘密選擇，因為總統剛剛宣佈我們知道如何做。」
The plan to blow up Nord Stream 1 and 2 was suddenly downgraded from a covert operation requiring that Congress be informed to one that was deemed as a highly classified intelligence operation with U.S. military support. Under the law, the source explained, 「There was no longer a legal requirement to report the operation to Congress. All they had to do now is just do it—but it still had to be secret. The Russians have superlative surveillance of the Baltic Sea.」
炸毀北溪1號和2號的計劃突然從要求通知國會的秘密行動降級為在美國軍事支持下被視為高度機密情報行動的行動。該消息人士解釋說，根據法律，「不再有向國會報告行動的法律要求。他們現在所要做的就是這樣做——但它仍然必須是秘密的。俄羅斯人對波羅的海擁有最高級的監視。」
The Agency working group members had no direct contact with the White House, and were eager to find out if the President meant what he’d said—that is, if the mission was now a go. The source recalled, 「Bill Burns comes back and says, ‘Do it.’」
中情局工作組成員與白宮沒有直接接觸，他們急切地想知道總統是否是認真的，也就是說，如果任務現在開始。消息來源回憶說，「比爾·伯恩斯回來說，『做吧』。」
“The Norwegian navy was quick to find the right spot, in the shallow water a few miles off Denmark’s Bornholm Island . . .”
「挪威海軍很快就找到了合適的地點，在距離丹麥博恩霍爾姆島幾英里的淺水區 . . .」
THE OPERATION
行動
Norway was the perfect place to base the mission.
挪威是執行任務的理想地點。
In the past few years of East-West crisis, the U.S. military has vastly expanded its presence inside Norway, whose western border runs 1,400 miles along the north Atlantic Ocean and merges above the Arctic Circle with Russia. The Pentagon has created high paying jobs and contracts, amid some local controversy, by investing hundreds of millions of dollars to upgrade and expand American Navy and Air Force facilities in Norway. The new works included, most importantly, an advanced synthetic aperture radar far up north that was capable of penetrating deep into Russia and came online just as the American intelligence community lost access to a series of long-range listening sites inside China.
在過去幾年的東西方危機中，美國軍方大幅擴大了在挪威的存在。挪威的西部邊界沿著北大西洋延伸1400英里，在北極圈上方與俄羅斯交匯。五角大樓投資數億美元升級和擴建美國海軍和空軍在挪威的設施，從而創造了高薪工作和合同。最重要的是，新工程包括一種先進的合成孔徑雷達，它能夠深入俄羅斯，並在美國情報界無法進入中國境內的一系列遠程監聽地點時上線。
A newly refurbished American submarine base, which had been under construction for years, had become operational and more American submarines were now able to work closely with their Norwegian colleagues to monitor and spy on a major Russian nuclear redoubt 250 miles to the east, on the Kola Peninsula. America also has vastly expanded a Norwegian air base in the north and delivered to the Norwegian air force a fleet of Boeing-built P8 Poseidon patrol planes to bolster its long-range spying on all things Russia.
一個新建的美國潛艇基地已經建造了多年，現在已經可以投入使用，更多的美國潛艇現在能夠與他們的挪威同事密切合作，監視和監視以東250英里的科拉半島上的一個主要的俄羅斯核堡壘。美國還在北部大幅擴建了一個挪威空軍基地，並向挪威空軍交付了一支由波音公司製造的P8海神巡邏機組成的艦隊，以加強其對俄羅斯所有事物的遠程間諜活動。
In return, the Norwegian government angered liberals and some moderates in its parliament last November by passing the Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement (SDCA). Under the new deal, the U.S. legal system would have jurisdiction in certain 「agreed areas 」 in the North over American soldiers accused of crimes off base, as well as over those Norwegian citizens accused or suspected of interfering with the work at the base.
作為回報，挪威政府去年11月通過了《補充防務合作協議》（SDCA），激怒了自由派和議會中的一些溫和派。根據新協議，美國法律體系將在某些「商定地區」對被控在基地外犯罪的美國士兵以及被控或涉嫌干擾基地工作的挪威公民擁有管轄權。
Norway was one of the original signatories of the NATO Treaty in 1949, in the early days of the Cold War. Today, the supreme commander of NATO is Jens Stoltenberg, a committed anti-communist, who served as Norway’s prime minister for eight years before moving to his high NATO post, with American backing, in 2014. He was a hardliner on all things Putin and Russia who had cooperated with the American intelligence community since the Vietnam War. He has been trusted completely since. 「He is the glove that fits the American hand,」 the source said.
1949年，在冷戰初期，挪威是《北約條約》的原始簽署國之一。如今，北約的最高統帥是延斯·斯托爾滕貝格，他是一位堅定的反共人士，曾擔任挪威總理八年，直到2014年在美國的支持下擔任北約高級職位。他在普京和俄羅斯的所有事情上都是強硬派，自越南戰爭以來一直與美國情報界合作。從那以後，他一直受到完全信任。「他是適合美國人的手套，」消息人士說。
Back in Washington, planners knew they had to go to Norway. 「They hated the Russians, and the Norwegian navy was full of superb sailors and divers who had generations of experience in highly profitable deep-sea oil and gas exploration,」 the source said. They also could be trusted to keep the mission secret. (The Norwegians may have had other interests as well. The destruction of Nord Stream—if the Americans could pull it off—would allow Norway to sell vastly more of its own natural gas to Europe.)
回到華盛頓，規劃者們知道他們必須去挪威。「他們討厭俄羅斯人，挪威海軍里到處都是優秀的水手和潛水員，他們在高利潤的深海石油和天然氣勘探方面有著幾代人的經驗，」消息人士說。他們也可以被信任為這項任務保密。（挪威人可能也有其他利益。北溪的破壞——如果美國人能成功的話——將使挪威能夠向歐洲出售更多的天然氣。）
Sometime in March, a few members of the team flew to Norway to meet with the Norwegian Secret Service and Navy. One of the key questions was where exactly in the Baltic Sea was the best place to plant the explosives. Nord Stream 1 and 2, each with two sets of pipelines, were separated much of the way by little more than a mile as they made their run to the port of Greifswald in the far northeast of Germany.
今年3月的某個時候，該小組的幾名成員飛往挪威，與挪威特勤局和海軍會面。關鍵問題之一是，波羅的海的哪個地方是放置爆炸物的最佳地點。北溪1號和北溪2號分別有兩套管道，在前往德國東北部的格雷夫斯瓦爾德港時，大部分距離相隔不到一英里。
The Norwegian navy was quick to find the right spot, in the shallow waters of the Baltic sea a few miles off Denmark’s Bornholm Island. The pipelines ran more than a mile apart along a seafloor that was only 260 feet deep. That would be well within the range of the divers, who, operating from a Norwegian Alta class mine hunter, would dive with a mixture of oxygen, nitrogen and helium streaming from their tanks, and plant shaped C4 charges on the four pipelines with concrete protective covers. It would be tedious, time consuming and dangerous work, but the waters off Bornholm had another advantage: there were no major tidal currents, which would have made the task of diving much more difficult.
挪威海軍很快在波羅的海的淺水區找到了合適的地點，距離丹麥的博恩霍爾姆島只有幾英里。這些管道沿著只有260英尺深的海底延伸了一英里多。這將完全在潛水員的範圍內，潛水員從挪威阿爾塔級探礦者手中潛入水中，水箱中流出氧氣、氮氣和氦氣的混合物，四個管道上的植物形狀的C4炸藥帶有混凝土防護罩。這將是一項乏味、耗時和危險的工作，但博恩霍爾姆附近的水域還有另一個優勢：沒有大的潮流，這將使潛水任務變得更加困難。
After a bit of research, the Americans were all in.
經過一番研究，美國人都加入了。
At this point, the Navy’s obscure deep-diving group in Panama City once again came into play. The deep-sea schools at Panama City, whose trainees participated in Ivy Bells, are seen as an unwanted backwater by the elite graduates of the Naval Academy in Annapolis, who typically seek the glory of being assigned as a Seal, fighter pilot, or submariner. If one must become a 「Black Shoe」—that is, a member of the less desirable surface ship command—there is always at least duty on a destroyer, cruiser or amphibious ship. The least glamorous of all is mine warfare. Its divers never appear in Hollywood movies, or on the cover of popular magazines.
在這一點上，海軍在巴拿馬城的默默無聞的深海潛水小組再次發揮了作用。巴拿馬城的深海學校，其學員參加了常春藤鐘聲，被安納波利斯海軍學院的精英畢業生視為不想要的死水，他們通常尋求被分配為海豹突擊隊、戰鬥機飛行員或潛水員的榮耀。如果一個人必須成為「黑鞋」——即不太理想的水面艦艇司令部的成員——驅逐艦、巡洋艦或兩棲船總是至少有責任的。最不迷人的是水雷戰。它的潛水員從未出現在好萊塢電影或流行雜誌的封面上。
「The best divers with deep diving qualifications are a tight community, and only the very best are recruited for the operation and told to be prepared to be summoned to the CIA in Washington,」 the source said.
消息人士說：「擁有深潛資格的最佳潛水員是一個緊密的社區，只有最優秀的潛水員才會被招募參加行動，並被告知準備被傳喚到華盛頓的CIA。
The Norwegians and Americans had a location and the operatives, but there was another concern: any unusual underwater activity in the waters off Bornholm might draw the attention of the Swedish or Danish navies, which could report it.
挪威人和美國人有一個位置和特工，但還有另一個擔憂：博恩霍爾姆附近水域的任何異常水下活動都可能引起瑞典或丹麥海軍的注意，他們可能會報告。
Denmark had also been one of the original NATO signatories and was known in the intelligence community for its special ties to the United Kingdom. Sweden had applied for membership into NATO, and had demonstrated its great skill in managing its underwater sound and magnetic sensor systems that successfully tracked Russian submarines that would occasionally show up in remote waters of the Swedish archipelago and be forced to the surface.
丹麥也是北約最初的簽署國之一，在情報界以其與英國的特殊關係而聞名。瑞典申請加入北約，並展示了其管理水下聲音和磁傳感器系統的高超技能，該系統成功地跟蹤了偶爾出現在瑞典群島偏遠水域並被迫浮出水面的俄羅斯潛艇。
The Norwegians joined the Americans in insisting that some senior officials in Denmark and Sweden had to be briefed in general terms about possible diving activity in the area. In that way, someone higher up could intervene and keep a report out of the chain of command, thus insulating the pipeline operation. 「What they were told and what they knew were purposely different,」 the source told me. (The Norwegian embassy, asked to comment on this story, did not respond.)
挪威人和美國人一樣，堅持要求丹麥和瑞典的一些高級官員必須聽取有關該地區可能的潛水活動的一般簡報。這樣，上級可以進行干預，並將報告排除在指揮系統之外，從而隔離管線作業。「他們被告知的和他們知道的是故意不同的，」消息來源告訴我。（被要求對此事發表評論的挪威大使館沒有回應。）
The Norwegians were key to solving other hurdles. The Russian navy was known to possess surveillance technology capable of spotting, and triggering, underwater mines. The American explosive devices needed to be camouflaged in a way that would make them appear to the Russian system as part of the natural background—something that required adapting to the specific salinity of the water. The Norwegians had a fix.
挪威人是解決其他障礙的關鍵。眾所周知，俄羅斯海軍擁有能夠發現並觸發水下水雷的監視技術。美國的爆炸裝置需要進行偽裝，使其在俄羅斯系統中看起來像是自然背景的一部分——這需要適應水的特定鹽度。挪威人有一個解決方案。
The Norwegians also had a solution to the crucial question of when the operation should take place. Every June, for the past 21 years, the American Sixth Fleet, whose flagship is based in Gaeta, Italy, south of Rome, has sponsored a major NATO exercise in the Baltic Sea involving scores of allied ships throughout the region. The current exercise, held in June, would be known as Baltic Operations 22, or BALTOPS 22 . The Norwegians proposed this would be the ideal cover to plant the mines.
對於何時開始行動這個關鍵問題，挪威人也有一個解決方案。在過去的21年里，每年6月，美國第六艦隊都會贊助北約在波羅的海進行一次大型演習，該演習涉及整個地區的數十艘盟軍船隻。美國第六艦隊的旗艦基地位於意大利的蓋塔。目前的演習於6月舉行，將被稱為波羅的海行動22，或BALTOPS 22。挪威人提出，這將是埋設地雷的理想掩護。
The Americans provided one vital element: they convinced the Sixth Fleet planners to add a research and development exercise to the program. The exercise, as made public by the Navy , involved the Sixth Fleet in collaboration with the Navy’s 「research and warfare centers.」 The at-sea event would be held off the coast of Bornholm Island and involve NATO teams of divers planting mines, with competing teams using the latest underwater technology to find and destroy them.
美國人提供了一個至關重要的因素：他們說服了第六艦隊的計劃人員，在該計劃中增加了一項研發演習。由海軍公開的演習涉及第六艦隊與海軍的「研究和作戰中心」合作。海上活動將在博恩霍爾姆島海岸舉行，北約的潛水員團隊將參與埋設地雷，而競爭團隊則使用最新的水下技術來尋找和摧毀地雷。
It was both a useful exercise and ingenious cover. The Panama City boys would do their thing and the C4 explosives would be in place by the end of BALTOPS22, with a 48-hour timer attached. All of the Americans and Norwegians would be long gone by the first explosion.
這既是一個有用的練習，也是一個巧妙的掩護。巴拿馬城的男孩們會做他們的事情，C4炸藥將在BALTOPS22結束時到位，並附有48小時的計時器。所有的美國人和挪威人都將在第一次爆炸時消失。
The days were counting down. 「The clock was ticking, and we were nearing mission accomplished,」 the source said.
時間在倒計時。「時間在滴答作響，我們即將完成任務，」消息人士說。
And then: Washington had second thoughts. The bombs would still be planted during BALTOPS, but the White House worried that a two-day window for their detonation would be too close to the end of the exercise, and it would be obvious that America had been involved.
然後，華盛頓改變了主意。炸彈仍將在BALTOPS期間放置，但白宮擔心，為期兩天的引爆窗口距離演習結束太近了，很明顯美國已經參與其中。
Instead, the White House had a new request: 「Can the guys in the field come up with some way to blow the pipelines later on command?」
相反，白宮提出了一個新的要求：「現場的人能想出一些方法，稍後在命令下炸毀管道嗎？」
Some members of the planning team were angered and frustrated by the President’s seeming indecision. The Panama City divers had repeatedly practiced planting the C4 on pipelines, as they would during BALTOPS, but now the team in Norway had to come up with a way to give Biden what he wanted—the ability to issue a successful execution order at a time of his choosing.
計劃小組的一些成員對總統似乎猶豫不決感到憤怒和沮喪。巴拿馬城的潛水員曾多次練習在管道上種植C4，就像他們在BALTOPS期間一樣，但現在挪威的團隊必須想出一種方法，讓拜登得到他想要的東西——能夠在他選擇的時間發佈成功的處決令。
Being tasked with an arbitrary, last-minute change was something the CIA was accustomed to managing. But it also renewed the concerns some shared over the necessity, and legality, of the entire operation.
CIA習慣於在最後一刻進行武斷的改變。但這也再次引起了一些人對整個行動的必要性和合法性的擔憂。
The President’s secret orders also evoked the CIA’s dilemma in the Vietnam War days, when President Johnson, confronted by growing anti-Vietnam War sentiment, ordered the Agency to violate its charter—which specifically barred it from operating inside America—by spying on antiwar leaders to determine whether they were being controlled by Communist Russia.
總統的秘密命令也引發了中情局在越南戰爭時期的困境，當時約翰遜總統面對日益增長的反越南戰爭情緒，命令中情局違反其章程-特別禁止其在美國境內運作-通過監視反戰領導人來確定他們是否被共產主義俄羅斯控制。
The agency ultimately acquiesced, and throughout the 1970s it became clear just how far it had been willing to go. There were subsequent newspaper revelations in the aftermath of the Watergate scandals about the Agency’s spying on American citizens, its involvement in the assassination of foreign leaders and its undermining of the socialist government of Salvador Allende.
中情局最終默許了這一點。在整個20世紀70年代，中情局願意走多遠的事情變得越來越清楚。水門事件醜聞之後，報紙披露了中情局對美國公民進行間諜活動、參與暗殺外國領導人以及破壞薩爾瓦多·阿連德的社會主義政府的消息。
Those revelations led to a dramatic series of hearings in the mid-1970s in the Senate, led by Frank Church of Idaho, that made it clear that Richard Helms, the Agency director at the time, accepted that he had an obligation to do what the President wanted, even if it meant violating the law.
這些揭露導致了20世紀70年代中期由愛達荷州弗蘭克·丘奇領導的參議院一系列戲劇性的聽證會，這些聽證會明確表示，當時的機構主任理查德·赫爾姆斯承認，他有義務做總統想要的事情，即使這意味著違反法律。
In unpublished, closed-door testimony, Helms ruefully explained that 「you almost have an Immaculate Conception when you do something」 under secret orders from a President. 「Whether it’s right that you should have it, or wrong that you shall have it, [the CIA] works under different rules and ground rules than any other part of the government.」 He was essentially telling the Senators that he, as head of the CIA, understood that he had been working for the Crown, and not the Constitution.
在未公開的閉門證詞中，赫爾姆斯遺憾地解釋說，根據總統的秘密命令，當你做某事時，你幾乎有一個完美的概念。無論你應該擁有它是對的，還是你應該擁有它是錯的，[CIA]在不同於政府任何其他部門的規則和基本規則下工作。他基本上是在告訴參議員，作為CIA的負責人，他明白他一直在為王室工作，而不是憲法。
The Americans at work in Norway operated under the same dynamic, and dutifully began working on the new problem—how to remotely detonate the C4 explosives on Biden’s order. It was a much more demanding assignment than those in Washington understood. There was no way for the team in Norway to know when the President might push the button. Would it be in a few weeks, in many months or in half a year or longer?
在挪威工作的美國人在同樣的動態下運作，並盡職盡責地開始研究新問題——如何根據拜登的命令遠程引爆C4炸藥。這是一項比華盛頓人所理解的要求高得多的任務。挪威的團隊無法知道總統何時會按下按鈕。是幾周、幾個月、半年還是更長時間？
The C4 attached to the pipelines would be triggered by a sonar buoy dropped by a plane on short notice, but the procedure involved the most advanced signal processing technology. Once in place, the delayed timing devices attached to any of the four pipelines could be accidentally triggered by the complex mix of ocean background noises throughout the heavily trafficked Baltic Sea—from near and distant ships, underwater drilling, seismic events, waves and even sea creatures. To avoid this, the sonar buoy, once in place, would emit a sequence of unique low frequency tonal sounds—much like those emitted by a flute or a piano—that would be recognized by the timing device and, after a pre-set hours of delay, trigger the explosives. (「You want a signal that is robust enough so that no other signal could accidentally send a pulse that detonated the explosives,」 I was told by Dr. Theodore Postol, professor emeritus of science, technology and national security policy at MIT. Postol, who has served as the science adviser to the Pentagon’s Chief of Naval Operations, said the issue facing the group in Norway because of Biden’s delay was one of chance: 「The longer the explosives are in the water the greater risk there would be of a random signal that would launch the bombs.」)
連接在管道上的C4將由飛機在短時間內投放的聲納浮標觸發，但這一過程涉及最先進的信號處理技術。一旦安裝到位，連接在四條管道中任何一條上的延遲計時裝置都可能被波羅的海交通繁忙的海洋背景噪音的複雜混合意外觸發——來自遠近船隻、水下鑽探、地震事件、海浪甚至海洋生物。為了避免這種情況，聲納浮標一旦到位，就會發出一系列獨特的低頻音調聲音——很像長笛或鋼琴發出的聲音——這些聲音會被定時裝置識別，並在預設的幾個小時延遲後觸發炸藥。（MIT科學、技術和國家安全政策名譽教授西奧多·波斯托博士告訴我，「你需要一個足夠強大的信號，以便沒有其他信號可以意外發送引爆炸藥的脈衝。」波斯托曾擔任五角大樓海軍作戰部長的科學顧問，他說，由於拜登的拖延，該組織在挪威面臨的問題是一個偶然的問題：爆炸物在水中的時間越長，發射炸彈的隨機信號的風險就越大。）
On September 26, 2022, a Norwegian Navy P8 surveillance plane made a seemingly routine flight and dropped a sonar buoy. The signal spread underwater, initially to Nord Stream 2 and then on to Nord Stream 1. A few hours later, the high-powered C4 explosives were triggered and three of the four pipelines were put out of commission. Within a few minutes, pools of methane gas that remained in the shuttered pipelines could be seen spreading on the water’s surface and the world learned that something irreversible had taken place.
2022年9月26日，挪威海軍的一架P8偵察機進行了一次看似例行的飛行，並投下了聲納浮標。信號在水下傳播，最初是北溪2號，然後是北溪1號。幾個小時後，大功率C4炸藥被觸發，四條管道中的三條被停用。幾分鐘內，可以看到留在關閉的管道中的甲烷氣體池在水面上蔓延，世界得知發生了不可逆轉的事情。
FALLOUT
後果
In the immediate aftermath of the pipeline bombing, the American media treated it like an unsolved mystery. Russia was repeatedly cited as a likely culprit , spurred on by calculated leaks from the White House—but without ever establishing a clear motive for such an act of self-sabotage, beyond simple retribution. A few months later, when it emerged that Russian authorities had been quietly getting estimates for the cost to repair the pipelines, the New York Times described the news as 「complicating theories about who was behind」 the attack. No major American newspaper dug into the earlier threats to the pipelines made by Biden and Undersecretary of State Nuland.
管道爆炸事件發生後，美國媒體立即將其視為一個未解之謎。俄羅斯一再被認為是一個可能的罪魁禍首，受到白宮精心策劃的洩密事件的刺激——但除了簡單的報復之外，從未確定這種自我破壞行為的明確動機。幾個月後，當俄羅斯當局悄悄獲得修復管道的成本估計時，《紐約時報》稱這一消息「使關於誰是幕後黑手的理論複雜化」。沒有一家美國主要報紙深入研究拜登和副國務卿紐蘭早些時候對管道的威脅。
While it was never clear why Russia would seek to destroy its own lucrative pipeline, a more telling rationale for the President’s action came from Secretary of State Blinken.
雖然尚不清楚為什麼俄羅斯會試圖摧毀自己利潤豐厚的管道，但國務卿布林肯為總統的行動提供了更有說服力的理由。
Asked at a press conference last September about the consequences of the worsening energy crisis in Western Europe, Blinken described the moment as a potentially good one:
在去年9月的新聞發佈會上，當被問及西歐能源危機惡化的後果時，布林肯形容這是一個潛在的好時機：
「It’s a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy and thus to take away from Vladimir Putin the weaponization of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs. That’s very significant and that offers tremendous strategic opportunity for the years to come, but meanwhile we’re determined to do everything we possibly can to make sure the consequences of all of this are not borne by citizens in our countries or, for that matter, around the world.」
「這是一個巨大的機會，可以一勞永逸地消除對俄羅斯能源的依賴，從而從弗拉基米爾·普京手中奪走將能源武器化作為推進其帝國主義計劃的手段。這非常重要，為未來幾年提供了巨大的戰略機遇，但與此同時，我們決心盡我們所能，確保所有這一切的後果不會由我們國家的公民承擔，或者就此而言，不會由世界各地的公民承擔。」
More recently, Victoria Nuland expressed satisfaction at the demise of the newest of the pipelines. Testifying at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing in late January she told Senator Ted Cruz, 「Like you, I am, and I think the Administration is, very gratified to know that Nord Stream 2 is now, as you like to say, a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea.」
最近，維多利亞·紐蘭對最新管道的消亡表示滿意。1月底，她在參議院外交關係委員會的聽證會上作證時告訴參議員特德·克魯茲，「像你一樣，我也是，我認為政府非常高興地知道，正如你喜歡說的那樣，北溪2號現在是海底的一塊金屬。」
The source had a much more streetwise view of Biden’s decision to sabotage more than 1500 miles of Gazprom pipeline as winter approached. 「Well,」 he said, speaking of the President, 「I gotta admit the guy has a pair of balls. He said he was going to do it, and he did.」
這位消息人士對拜登決定在冬季來臨之際破壞俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司1500多英里管道的決定有更具街頭智慧的看法。「嗯，」他在談到總統時說，「我得承認這傢伙很有膽量。他說他會這麼做，他做到了。」
Asked why he thought the Russians failed to respond, he said cynically, 「Maybe they want the capability to do the same things the U.S. did.
當被問及為什麼他認為俄羅斯人沒有回應時，他憤世嫉俗地說，「也許他們希望有能力做美國做的同樣的事情。」
「It was a beautiful cover story,」 he went on. 「Behind it was a covert operation that placed experts in the field and equipment that operated on a covert signal.
「這是一個美麗的封面故事，」他接著說。「背後是一個秘密行動，放置了該領域的專家和根據秘密信號操作的設備。」
“The only flaw was the decision to do it.”
「唯一的缺陷是做這件事的決定。」■
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